Notes from the desk.

Market context, method, and the occasional deep dive. Every issue publishes in full on Substack. Free to read, free to subscribe.

Filled to Capacity

Capacity, market share, nameplate power and partner counts are supply-side numbers: they describe how big the container is, not how much is in it. The one question that tells a ceiling from a fill level.

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Still Life With Falling Knife

A valuation multiple is a single frame, and the earnings half of it is six weeks old by rule. What two frames in order show that one never could.

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Four Quarters and a Vote

The S&P 500 has an entry requirement that is checked once, on the way in, and never again. What that means for every comparison drawn against it.

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